Climate / Earth

Snapshot

Alert

El Niño Advisory

Issued

Oct 8, 2026

September Niño-3.4

+2.1°C

Outlook

Strong to very strong El Niño likely through January to March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance); 83% chance October to December exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (CPC language)

Next discussion

Nov 12, 2026

Source

NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Notes

• official (US Geological Survey, event us6000u4j2, ShakeMap and PAGER, Oct 24; USGS earthquake catalog, Oct 23 to 24)

  An M6.9 quake opens a swarm off Vanuatu, with dozens of strong shocks since

  Vanuatu · at sea west northwest of Port-Olry, Espiritu Santo (pin: USGS epicenter 14.0558S 165.5455E)

  Oct 24, 2026, 8:48 AM EDTUS Geological Survey: M 6.9, 197 km WNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu, event us6000u4j2 (Oct 24 2026)

  A magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck at sea 197 km west northwest of Port-Olry, Vanuatu, at 02:31 UTC on Oct 24, at a depth of 10 km, USGS says. An M6.3 followed four minutes later. USGS lists 29 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or more in the area since, seven of them M5.5 or larger. Its PAGER system issued a green alert.

• official (Taiwan Central Weather Administration, Typhoon Warning Cancelled, report No. 24 for Typhoon No. 29, Oct 24; earlier reports No. 17 and No. 18-2, Oct 23 to 24)

  Taiwan cancels its typhoon warning as a weakened Champi moves away

  East China Sea · Champi, north northeast of Taipei (pin: CWA center position 27.8N 123.4E)

  Oct 23, 2026, 8:55 AM EDTTaiwan Central Weather Administration: Typhoon Champi, Typhoon Warning Cancelled, report No. 24 (Oct 24 2026)

  Taiwan's Central Weather Administration has cancelled its typhoon warning for Champi. In report No. 24, issued 8:30 PM Taiwan time on Oct 24, it said Champi had weakened to a severe tropical storm with a smaller storm circle, its center about 360 km north northeast of Taipei at 27.8N 123.4E, moving north northeast and turning northeast. The threat to the waters off northern Taiwan has ended.

• official (US Geological Survey, event us6000u43g and PAGER, Oct 22; China Earthquake Networks Center and Xizang authorities as reported by Xinhua, Oct 22)

  An M7.0 earthquake strikes the Tibetan Plateau, and USGS says the damage may be widespread

  China · Tibetan Plateau, Baqen County, Nagqu, Xizang (pin: USGS epicenter 32.3805N 93.7797E)

  Oct 22, 2026, 3:22 PM EDTUS Geological Survey: M 7.0, 191 km ENE of Nagqu, China, event us6000u43g (Oct 22 2026)

  A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck the Tibetan Plateau at 10:33 PM local time on Oct 22, 191 km east northeast of Nagqu, China, at a depth of 18 km, USGS says. Its PAGER system issued an orange alert for economic losses. Local authorities say 16 people were killed and 76 injured in Baqen County, according to Xinhua.

• official (Taiwan Central Weather Administration, Sea and Land Typhoon Warning No. 8 for CWA Typhoon No. 29 (Japan Meteorological Agency Typhoon No. 30), Oct 22; US Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Warning 32 for 29W, Oct 22)

  Taiwan issues a sea and land typhoon warning as Typhoon Champi closes in

  Taiwan · Typhoon Champi, east of Eluanbi (pin: CWA center position 21.2N 124.9E)

  Oct 22, 2026, 8:51 AM EDTTaiwan Central Weather Administration: Typhoon Champi Sea and Land Typhoon Warning, report No. 8 (Oct 22 2026)

  Taiwan's Central Weather Administration issued a sea and land typhoon warning for Typhoon Champi, telling every area of Taiwan to stay on high alert for strong winds and torrential rain. At 8 PM local time on Oct 22 the storm was about 430 km east of Eluanbi, with a central pressure of 940 hPa and sustained winds near the center of 45 m/s. The agency forecasts its center about 110 km east southeast of Yilan by 8 PM on Oct 23.

• official (National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces, Oct 18; Prime Minister of Canada, Oct 18; Government of Alberta) · media (AP; The Guardian)

  A wind-driven grass fire kills four soldiers at CFB Wainwright, Alberta

  CFB Wainwright, Alberta, Canada

  Oct 19, 2026, 5:01 PM EDTNational Defence: Four Canadian Armed Forces members killed during training in CFB Wainwright (Oct 18 2026)

  National Defence says four Canadian Armed Forces members were killed after a fire ignited in the training area of CFB Wainwright, Alberta, at about 4 PM local time on Oct 17 and spread rapidly beyond it. Prime Minister Mark Carney called it one of the worst tragedies for the Forces on Canadian soil in peacetime. Alberta's premier said 39 people were in hospital, at least 19 critical. The cause is under investigation.

• official data (Japan Meteorological Agency press releases, Oct 16, first to third reports; JMA EEW issuance record and warning rules)

  Japan's earthquake warning system announced an M9.9 that never happened

  Near the Kamchatka Peninsula · 50.0°N 158.1°E (JMA hypocenter, about 160 km deep) · warning area Hokkaido to Chubu, Japan

  Oct 17, 2026, 2:32 PM EDTJapan Meteorological Agency: press release on the Earthquake Early Warning issued at 12:40 JST, Oct 16, 2026

  JMA, Oct 16: at 12:40 PM JST (11:40 PM EDT Oct 15) the Japan Meteorological Agency issued an Earthquake Early Warning for Hokkaido through the Chubu region after its processing placed the source in the Kuril Islands and estimated magnitude 9.9. The public warning itself carries no magnitude; it names the source area and the regions told to expect strong shaking. The real quake was a preliminary M6.9 near the Kamchatka Peninsula, origin time 12:35 PM JST, about 160 km deep, with a maximum seismic intensity of 1 in Hakodate and no tsunami concern. JMA says one of the causes was distant stations used in the magnitude calculation, because a 700 km exclusion meant to stop this was not working; it applied an emergency fix around 9:30 PM JST and apologized.

• official data (CAL FIRE incident pages and incident list for the Norte, Henderson and Bryson fires, Oct 19 and 20; OCFA via CAL FIRE)

  Santa Ana fires: Henderson and Bryson fully contained, Norte Fire at 92%

  Norte Fire · Portico Del Norte and Eminencia Del Norte, San Clemente, CA · 33.4813°N 117.6362°W

  Oct 17, 2026, 2:32 PM EDTCAL FIRE: Norte Fire incident page (Orange County Fire Authority)

  CAL FIRE incident list: the Norte Fire in San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano (Orange County Fire Authority) is 570 acres and 92% contained (updated 8:14 PM PDT Oct 20). An OCFA repopulation update on the Norte page says evacuation orders for San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano are lifted, with Via La Mirada closed north of Esperanza. The Henderson Fire on Camp Pendleton is 3,260 acres and the Bryson Fire near Malibu is 146 acres; both are 100% contained.

• official data (Dare County Bulletin #1, Oct 16; NWS Newport/Morehead City Coastal Flood Warning, High Surf and Wind Advisories, Oct 21)

  Hatteras Island visitors are ordered out as a nor'easter threatens to cut off N.C. 12

  Hatteras Island, Dare County, North Carolina · Outer Banks

  Oct 17, 2026, 2:32 PM EDTDare County, NC: Bulletin #1, Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for Hatteras Island Visitors (Oct 16, 6:37 PM EDT)

  Dare County declared a state of emergency for Hatteras Island at 6 PM Fri Oct 16 and ordered all visitors to leave from 8 PM, covering Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco and Hatteras Village; residents were not ordered out. NWS Newport/Morehead City has a Coastal Flood Warning for Hatteras Island, reissued at 7:37 AM Wednesday and now running until 8 PM Thursday, with 2 to 4 feet of inundation possible, NC 12 likely to flood around high tide, and a chance of people being stranded on the island for multiple days.

• official data (USGS event us6000u2mq; NOAA NTWC and PTWC information statements)

  An M6.9 quake struck 135 km beneath Kamchatka, too deep for a tsunami

  Kamchatka, Russia · 51.985°N 157.270°E · 76 km NE of Ozernovskiy · depth 135 km

  Oct 17, 2026, 9:01 AM EDTUSGS: M 6.9, 76 km NE of Ozernovskiy, Russia (us6000u2mq)

  USGS: an M6.9 (Mww) earthquake struck 76 km NE of Ozernovskiy, Russia, at 51.985N 157.270E and 135 km depth on Oct 16 at 03:35 UTC (11:35 PM EDT Thu Oct 15). USGS PAGER is Green. NOAA's tsunami centers issued information statements only: the National Tsunami Warning Center said there is no tsunami danger for the U.S. West Coast, British Columbia or Alaska and, based on the depth, a tsunami is not expected; the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said there is no tsunami threat to Guam or the Northern Marianas.

• official data (NWS Guam Super Typhoon Champi Advisory 28, final; JTWC Warning 28; Taiwan Central Weather Administration, Oct 21; GDACS)

  Super Typhoon Champi passes its peak at 175 mph as Taiwan prepares for warnings

  Western Pacific · 19.0°N 128.4°E (NWS Guam Adv 28) · Philippine Sea

  Oct 17, 2026, 9:01 AM EDTNWS Tiyan, Guam: Super Typhoon Champi (29W) Advisory 28 (final), 8:11 PM ChST Wed Oct 21

  NWS Guam Advisory 28, its last on the storm, 8 PM ChST Wed Oct 21 (6 AM EDT Wed): Super Typhoon Champi has 175 mph winds near 19.0N 128.4E, about 1,150 miles west-northwest of Guam, moving west-northwest at 15 mph, and is forecast to weaken through Thursday. It peaked at 185 mph in Advisory 26. No watches or warnings are in effect. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration said on Oct 21 it may issue a sea typhoon warning late that night, Taiwan time, and possibly a land warning on Oct 22. JTWC Warning 28's forecast track carries Champi past the waters east of Taiwan on Friday.

• official data (USGS; SINAPROC via TVN; UN OCHA Sitrep 3; PAHO/WHO)

  Panama's M7.7 quake: 2,164 families affected, 506 lost their homes, no deaths, and aftershocks that could run for weeks

  Azuero Peninsula, Panama · 7.587°N 80.769°W (USGS epicenter)

  Oct 14, 2026, 8:59 AM EDTUSGS: M 7.7, 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama

  USGS: M7.7 at 17:56 UTC (12:56 PM ET) Oct 9 near 7.587N 80.769W, depth 12.6 km, 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba on the Azuero Peninsula; PAGER orange. SINAPROC Communique No. 9 (to 10 PM local Oct 12): 2,164 families, 7,480 people, affected in 9 provinces; 506 families lost their homes. OCHA Sitrep 3 (Oct 12): 27 injured, no deaths or missing, 619 schools and 29 health facilities affected, 16 bridges damaged, more than 800 people in shelters. Aftershocks include USGS M6.6 Oct 9 and M6.1 Oct 12. The University of Panama's geosciences institute says aftershocks could continue for weeks.

• official data (USGS; GDACS)

  Two strong quakes, M6.7 and M6.8, hit the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge seven hours apart

  Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge · 0.409°S 19.431°W (USGS, M6.8)

  Oct 14, 2026, 8:59 AM EDTUSGS: M 6.8, central Mid-Atlantic Ridge

  USGS: M6.7 at 05:44 UTC (1:44 AM ET) Oct 13 near 0.169N 19.860W, and M6.8 at 12:23 UTC (8:23 AM ET) near 0.409S 19.431W, both about 10 km deep on the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Both PAGER green. GDACS rates the M6.8 low humanitarian impact with a 0 m tsunami alert.

• official data (NOAA / NHC Post-Tropical Cyclone Trudy Advisory 27, final; satellite image and cone from Advisory 20)

  Trudy becomes a remnant low off Mexico as NHC issues its final advisory

  Eastern Pacific · 19.5°N 108.0°W (Adv 27) · ~160 mi WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

  Oct 14, 2026, 8:59 AM EDTNOAA NHC: Post-Tropical Cyclone Trudy Public Advisory 27, final (latest public advisory page)

  NHC Advisory 27 (8 PM MST Mon Oct 19 / 11 PM EDT): Trudy has become a post-tropical remnant low with 35 mph winds and 1005 mb pressure near 19.5N 108.0W, about 160 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, drifting north at 2 mph. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect and NHC lists no hazards affecting land. This was NHC's final advisory; the remnant low is expected to move slowly west-northwest until it dissipates.

• official data (NOAA / NHC Remnants of Simon Advisory 38, final)

  Remnants of Simon: NHC issues its final advisory as the storm dissipates south of Baja California Sur

  Eastern Pacific · 21.5°N 110.3°W (Adv 38, final) · ~100 mi SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

  Oct 8, 2026, 5:22 PM EDTNOAA NHC: Remnants of Simon Advisory 38, final (public advisory page)

  NHC Advisory 38 (2 PM MST / 5 PM EDT Fri Oct 16), the final NHC advisory: Simon has dissipated. The remnants, with 35 mph winds and 1006 mb pressure, were near 21.5N 110.3W, about 100 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, moving northwest at 13 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings. Swells from the remnants could still cause life-threatening surf and rip currents along west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so.

• official data (NOAA / NHC Public Advisories 12A to 14A; NOAA / WPC Post-Tropical Advisory 20, final)

  Isaias is gone: the hurricane peaked at 120 mph, came ashore in the western Florida Panhandle, and dissipated over the Appalachians

  Southern Gulf · 24.4°N 89.3°W (Adv 9) · ~215 mi N of Progreso, Mexico · ~325 mi S of the mouth of the Mississippi River

  Oct 7, 2026, 5:18 AM EDTNOAA NHC: Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory 9 (latest public advisory page)

  Closing update. NHC put Isaias at its peak of 120 mph and 959 mb at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 9, about 145 mi south of Pensacola. At 700 PM CDT it was nearing landfall in the western Florida Panhandle at 110 mph, 967 mb; by 1000 PM CDT it was moving over the western Panhandle at 90 mph. It weakened over Alabama to 35 mph by 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10. The Weather Prediction Center issued its last advisory (Adv 20) at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias near 37.5N 84.0W, 25 mph, 1010 mb, expected to dissipate over West Virginia that evening.

• official data (NOAA / NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory 46 and Discussion 46, 1500 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026)

  Tropical Storm Rachel, now 70 mph, is forecast to turn toward northern Baja California and Southern California this weekend

  Eastern North Pacific · 22.1°N 124.2°W (Adv 46) · ~915 mi W of the southern tip of Baja California

  Oct 4, 2026, 11:40 PM EDTNOAA NHC: Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory 46 (latest public advisory page)

  NHC Advisory 46 (8 AM PDT / 11 AM EDT Thu Oct 8): Tropical Storm Rachel has 70 mph winds and 985 mb pressure near 22.1N 124.2W, about 915 mi west of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west-northwest at 7 mph. No coastal watches or warnings yet, but NHC says a Tropical Storm Watch could be needed for parts of extreme northern Baja California, the northern Gulf of California and Southern California by tonight. A sharp turn northeast is forecast Saturday, bringing Rachel near northern Baja California late Saturday, still at tropical storm strength, with heavy rain, flash flooding risk and dangerous surf.

• official data (NOAA / NHC Hurricane Rachel Advisory 32 and Discussion 32, 0300 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026)

  Rachel weakens to 100 mph far off Baja California as dry air reaches its core

  Eastern North Pacific · 20.2°N 114.8°W (Adv 32) · ~365 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja California

  Oct 4, 2026, 11:40 PM EDTNOAA NHC: Hurricane Rachel Advisory 32 (latest public advisory page)

  NHC Advisory 32 (8 PM MST / 11 PM ET Sun Oct 4): Hurricane Rachel has 100 mph winds and 967 mb pressure, near 20.2N 114.8W, about 365 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 7 mph. No coastal watches or warnings. NHC says the eye has filled in and dry air appears to have reached the core; slow weakening is expected from Monday. Swells will keep causing life-threatening surf and rip currents on the Baja California coast for the next couple of days.

• official data (NOAA / NHC for CPHC: Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57 and Discussion 57, 2100 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026, the last NHC advisory · JMA / RSMC Tokyo: Typhoon Nolo (T2628) analysis, 0000 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026)

  Nolo crosses the Date Line as a Category 3 and Japan’s weather agency takes over the advisories

  Western North Pacific, just west of the Date Line · 24.8°N 179.4°E (JMA, 0000 UTC Oct 5)

  Oct 4, 2026, 11:40 PM EDTNOAA NHC for CPHC: Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57, the last NHC advisory

  NHC issued its last advisory on Nolo at 11 AM HST (5 PM ET) Sun Oct 4: Advisory 57 put the Category 3 hurricane at 115 mph and 959 mb on the International Date Line, 24.2N 180.0, about 395 mi WSW of Lisianski Island, moving west at 17 mph. Advisories now come from RSMC Tokyo (the Japan Meteorological Agency), which at 0000 UTC Oct 5 (8 PM ET) placed Typhoon Nolo at 24.8N 179.4E, 960 hPa, moving west. No coastal watches or warnings; large swell will keep washing over low atolls from Maro Reef to Lisianski Island.

• official data (JMA / RSMC Tokyo: Typhoon Nolo (T2628) analysis 0900 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 and forecast, issued 1005 UTC · NOAA / NHC for CPHC: Hurricane Nolo Advisory 57, the last NHC advisory)

  Typhoon Nolo deepens to 950 hPa west of the Date Line, with Japan’s forecast weakening it by midweek

  Western North Pacific, west of the Date Line · 25.5°N 177.0°E (JMA, 0900 UTC Oct 5)

  Oct 4, 2026, 11:40 PM EDTJapan Meteorological Agency: typhoon information (Typhoon Nolo, T2628)

  Japan Meteorological Agency (RSMC Tokyo) analysis for 0900 UTC Oct 5 (5 AM ET): Typhoon Nolo (T2628) is near 25.5N 177.0E, 950 hPa, maximum sustained winds 95 kt (10-minute average), gusts 135 kt, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. That is 10 hPa deeper and 5 kt stronger than JMA’s first analysis at 0000 UTC. JMA keeps it at 95 kt for the next 12 hours, then weakens it to 65 kt by 0600 UTC Oct 7 and a severe tropical storm by Oct 8, over open ocean as it moves west.

• official (National Weather Service active alerts, api.weather.gov, pulled 4 Oct 2026 11:05 AM PDT · NWS Las Vegas, Los Angeles/Oxnard, San Diego, San Francisco, Sacramento, Hanford, Eureka)

  October heat grips California: Death Valley near 110 with lows near 85, Southern California under Extreme Heat Warnings

  California · Death Valley National Park (below 2,000 ft) · Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, Orange, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties · Bay Area and Central Valley under advisories

  Oct 4, 2026, 2:21 PM EDTNational Weather Service: active alerts for California (api.weather.gov)

  As of 11:05 AM PDT Oct 4, NWS Las Vegas has an Extreme Heat Warning for Death Valley National Park below 2,000 feet: highs near 110°F and overnight lows around 85°F from 11 AM Oct 4 to 8 PM PDT Friday Oct 9 (11 PM EDT). NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard and NWS San Diego have Extreme Heat Warnings until 8 PM PDT Thursday Oct 8 for coast, valleys and mountains from Santa Barbara County to San Diego County, with highs up to 106°F in the Los Angeles and Ventura valleys. Heat Advisories cover the Bay Area, the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys and the Central Coast.

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