{
  "stale": false,
  "last_checked": "Oct 8, 2026, 5:22 PM EDT",
  "snapshot": {
    "alert": "El Niño Advisory",
    "issued": "Oct 8, 2026",
    "nino34_september": "+2.1°C",
    "outlook": "Strong to very strong El Niño likely through January to March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance); 83% chance October to December exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (CPC language)",
    "next_discussion": "Nov 12, 2026",
    "source_name": "NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion",
    "source_url": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml"
  },
  "paper_shelf": [],
  "notes": "New Oct 8, 5 PM EDT: Tropical Storm Simon (NHC Adv 6) 70 mph, 992 mb near 15.7N 103.9W; Hurricane Warning Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula; rapid strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane forecast before the core reaches southwestern Mexico Saturday. Updated Oct 8, 5 PM EDT: Hurricane Isaias (NHC Adv 9) 100 mph, 975 mb near 24.4N 89.3W, first Atlantic eye of the season on satellite; peak near 110 mph overnight, landfall in the warning area late Friday or early Saturday; Hurricane Warning Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County line, FL; Storm Surge Warning mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, FL. Updated Oct 8: Tropical Storm Rachel (NHC Adv 46) 70 mph near 22.1N 124.2W; turn northeast Saturday toward northern Baja California and Southern California; Tropical Storm Watch possible tonight. Updated Oct 8: El Niño card from NOAA CPC's Oct 8 discussion: El Niño Advisory, Niño-3.4 +2.1°C in September, 83% chance October to December exceeds every El Niño since 1950 (75% in September); next discussion Nov 12. New Oct 5 morning: Typhoon Nolo (JMA 0900 UTC) 950 hPa, 95 kt, near 25.5N 177.0E. Rachel NHC Adv 33, 90 mph, no warnings. New Oct 4 evening: Nolo NHC Adv 57, the last NHC advisory, 115 mph Cat 3 on the Date Line; RSMC Tokyo (JMA) takes over, Typhoon Nolo near 24.8N 179.4E. Rachel NHC Adv 32, 100 mph, no warnings, weakening. New Oct 4: Nolo CPHC Adv 56, 115 mph Cat 3, nearing the Date Line. Rachel NHC Adv 30, 105 mph, no warnings, weakening from Monday. Bangkok and Thailand floods: DDPM counts 3.26 million affected, four deaths in Bangkok. California: NWS Extreme Heat Warnings, Death Valley near 110°F. El Niño card updated ahead of NOAA’s Oct 8 discussion. New: Nolo CPHC Adv 52A: major hurricane, Category 3, 115 mph, 959 mb, near 23.2N 172.0W; Tropical Storm Warning Maro Reef to Lisianski Island; forecast to strengthen and cross the Date Line Sunday. Rachel NHC Adv 18: 105 mph, 964 mb, major forecast by Friday morning, heading west into the Pacific. Nepal rain/landslides: NDRRMA at least 34 dead, 11 missing since Sep 24; Himlung avalanche 15 recovered dead, 1 missing (NNMGA). "
}